A Statistical Study of R&D and Innovation Trends in Ukraine under Martial Law

Abstract

The article contains results of a comprehensive statistical study of research and development (R&D) and innovation in Ukraine under martial law. The strategic role of R&D and innovation as factors underlying economic resilience, competitiveness, and post-war recovery is substantiated. The analysis covers statistical data for 2021–2024 on internal R&D spending, structure of R&D spending by source, distribution of R&D spending by field of science, distribution of R&D personnel by field of science, age structure of researchers, structure of innovation spending by economic activity. The results reveal a high dependence of the national R&D sector on public funding and persistent structural imbalances in human capital reproduction. Econometric modelling demonstrated a statistically significant and strong correlation between the R&D productivity and gross domestic product, confirming the priority of an intensive R&D model over extensive expansion. At the same time, the correlation between innovation expenditures and the number of new-to-market innovations appears to be unstable and only moderately significant, indicating institutional constraints in the commercialization of R&D and the presence of time lags and external shocks. Cluster analysis was applied to identify regional typologies of innovation development, revealing pronounced spatial asymmetries and a high concentration of R&D and innovation capacities in a limited number of regions. The findings justify the need for a differentiated national and regional innovation policy aimed at strengthening institutional support, improving the efficiency of R&D resource allocation, and enhancing the adaptive capacity of the innovation system under conditions of war and structural transformation.