Anomalies in the Ukrainian Economy Development in the System of Statistical Indicators

Abstract

A study of change in the Ukrainian economy is made by its projection on the theoretical foundations highlighting the regularities of cyclic economic development. Terminological tool of the study is supplemented by attributes of normal and abnormal course of cyclic change in the national economy. Normal cyclic change refers to the change triggering positive economic development. Abnormal cyclic change refers to the change resulting in negative economic development. The purpose of the study is to identify the attributes characterizing abnormal deviation of economic change in Ukraine. Statistical indicators for Ukraine are analyzed; business activity phases in Ukraine are formalized according to the theory of cycles; international comparisons are made. Methodology of the analysis includes comparative analysis of change in the Ukrainian economy (1990–2015) at three levels. At the first level, change in GDP, consumer price index and unemployment is analyzed; at the second level, characteristic features of economic change are compared with theoretic foundations on the regularities of economic cycles; at the third level, comparison of statistical parameters of cyclic change in the Ukrainian economy and the U. S. economy is made (using NBER data on the U. S.). Comparative tables and graphs are given. The overall downward trend of cyclic change in Ukraine, the missing renovation phase, the depth and the duration of the crisis are indications of the abnormal course of cyclic change in the Ukrainian economy. Results of the study demonstrate that the existing theoretical and methodological framework is incapable for adequate interpretation of the nature of non-economic factors’ impact on the economy.