International Trade in the Context of Global Turbulence: Structural Shifts and Economic Consequences

Abstract

The article analyzes the transformation of international trade under the influence of global economic turbulence caused by pandemics, conflicts, trade wars, and the fragmentation of the world economy. The relevance of the study is emphasized by Ukraine's specific situation, which is experiencing wartime shocks and requires integration into European value chains. The evolution of international trade theories has been systematized, with assessing the impact of global shocks on trade flows. Key transformations of Ukraine's trade architecture have been identified based on the potential of the EU Ukraine Facility plan for export modernization. A comprehensive set of economic adaptation mechanisms has been studied, including export diversification, the development of processing industries, modernization of transport and logistics infrastructure, and government support for strategic sectors. The scientific novelty lies in the comprehensive assessment of trade resilience, encompassing the interaction of global shocks, logistical disruptions, flow regionalization, and institutional integration, allowing both quantitative and conceptual analysis of economic adaptability. The practical significance is in shaping strategies for Ukraine under conditions of global turbulence, where the key determinants of trade resilience are integration into the European economic area, export diversification, infrastructure modernization, and the development of high value-added sectors. The results confirm a systemic transformation of global trade from cost-minimization models to concepts prioritizing resilience, regionalization, and structural adaptation, laying the basis for Ukraine's long-term competitiveness.