Strategic and Innovative Areas in the Development of National Migration Policy in the Context of Macroeconomic Growth of the Ukrainian Economy

УДК: 330.342:314.7 JEL Classifications: J 11 doi: 10.31767/nasoa.1-2-2022.05 T. BULAKH, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Associate Professor of Department for Economics and Management of the Foreign Economic Activities; e-mail:rla799@ukr.net, ORCID: 0000-0002-9061-0325, ResearcherID: K-6198-2018; S. ZALYUBOVSKA, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Associate Professor of Department for Economics and Management of the Foreign Economic Activities; National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit; zalyubovskaya_nasoa@ukr.net, ORCID: 0000-0001-5651-8165, ResearcherID: K-6235-2018; G. KASHCHEІEVА, Doctor of Philosophy in Economics, Director of the Representative Office PJSC “HEI “IAPM” “Berezan Institute”; ORCID: 0000-0002-6684-3057

Introduction. The distinctive features of the Ukrainian migration policy today are inadequate administrative, legal and social regulation of migration processes, creating bureaucratic barriers in public administration bodies. These problems call for solutions promoting consolidation of democracy and observation of human rights in Ukraine, its integration in the global community, on the one hand, and enhancement of the national security, on the other. Being subject to broad-scale political debate in scientific and political circles of Ukraine, the migration problem needs continuing research.
Literature review. Theoretical and methodological issues of migration policy setting have always been in focus of researchers. The most essential contribution in their elaboration was made by К. Barrow, P. Barrow, R. Brown, І. Blank and others.
Many In spite of large scopes of research on migration policy, there has been no works that would focus on determining strategic orientations and innovative development of migration policy in Ukraine.
The article' objective is to present results of an analytical review of the current performance and tendencies of the migration policy in Ukraine, highlight migration policy problems, and elaborate recommendations on its strategic orientations.
Research results. Migration is a continuous, natural and multidimensional process involving great masses of people of all the nationalities, social groups, age categories from all the corners of the world.
Migration of the population has essential contribution in the social development. Being a form people's adaptation to changing conditions of the community life, it has strong impact on the geography, structure and dynamics of the global population, from individual settlements and districts to whole countries and continents.
Massive movements of people can be triggered by various reasons, both natural and socio-economic. Unfortunately, the migration related with forceful expulsion of indigenous populations from their native areas has been survived until now.
Also, massive scales and ubiquity of migration cause great many socio-economic and political problems. That is why many countries have to face the challenge of control over migration processes.
Migration processes are reflected in the migration policy that is country-specific. An ill-conceived migration policy will increase the share of illegal migration, crime, drug abuse, corruption, and create social tensions, thus affecting public interest and undermining the national security.
A critically important dimension in setting the effective migration policy is admittedly an analysis of the migration activity of the population. An appropriate set of indicators enables to investigate the migration policy at country level [7].
An analysis of the inflow and outflow of cross-country migrants to/from Ukraine in 2013-2020 shows that the overall situation did improve (see Figure below). The number of outgoing persons in these period decreased from 22187 in 2013 to 19121 in 2020 (i. e. by 3066). It was the lowest only in 2016 (6465), which can be attributed to positive socioeconomic trends: a growth in the real income of the population due to the falling inflation rate (43% in 2015, 13% in 2017 and 4.1% in 2019) amidst stabilization of the currency market, implementation of balanced monetary policy and recover of the economic growth. But the pandemic increased the Ukrainians' desire to work abroad to the extent that the migration processes of the latest years got out of control. Only nearly 10% (300,000 to 400,000) of the total migrants returned to Ukraine in 2020, but only to go back to work in other countries as soon as possible. The main reason for this is the adverse socio-economic situation. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, domestic GDP fell by 4% in 2021 and still remains lower than in 2013. The unemployment rate was 10%, being the highest one after 2014, and the poverty level was higher than 23% (with 8,800,000 of Ukrainian residents being below the poverty line). The demographic situation was also adverse [4]. The main destinations of labor migration from Ukraine are Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and others. The significance of other destinations is region-specific: 35% of migrants from Western regions (Rivne, Volyn, Lviv, Transcarpathy, Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil) go to Italy, 20% -to Russia, 19% -to Spain; migrants from regions located mainly in the Central part of Ukraine (Khmelnitsk, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Chekasy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Poltava, Sumy) go Russia (45%), Italy (27%); migrants from East and South of Ukraine (Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzia, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions) go to Russia (53%), Italy (11%) [5].
The main activities providing jobs for Ukrainian labor migrants are construction, care of the elderly, household work, and service sector.
Data on the migrant structure by age, gender and type of location in 2020 are given in Table 1. They show that the migration was dominated by man (12,900), with the number of women being 6,200. The largest shares of migrants were in the age category 25-29 years (4,000) and 30-34 years (2,100).
Also, according to Eurostat, Ukraine was the global leader in 2018 by the number of persons obtaining the permanent residence permit in EU-28 (527000 applicants, or 16.0% of the total applicants for residence permit in ЄС-28); it outpaced China (6.4%), India (6.1%), Syria (5.4%), Belarus (4.3%), Morocco (3.9%). This pattern has logic origins in the socioeconomic instability, decreasing welfare and quality of life, shrinking opportunities to earn more and fully employ one's abilities [6].
The main distinctive features of the external migration from Ukraine are: -prevalence of labor migration; -prevalence of men in the labor migrants; -uneven development of Ukrainian regions, which heavily affects for migration processes [3]; -main destinations of the labor migration are Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary.
-Internal movements, or cross-region migration processes, are also mass-scale and, hence, important for Ukraine.
An analysis of the migration movement dynamics shows the continuing tendency of urbanization, with the declining rural population and increasing urban inhabitants (see Table 2).
Heavy migration losses of the population are characteristic for Western and North-Western regions that feature higher than average rates of poverty and unemployment, large scopes of employment in household plots, and the worst access to medical and education services. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, in 2020 the largest number of people came to live in Kharkiv and Kyiv regions (55,000 to each), and to Dnipropetrovsk region (+51,000). 36,000 new residents obtained registration in Kyiv in 2019.
But the outflow from Kharkiv region (43,000) proved to be not far lesser than the inflow. It was the highest among the Ukrainian regions, with the migration-related increase in the population of Kharkiv region making only 3,800.
The outflow from Dnipropetrovsk and Kyiv regions was twice lower than the inflow: 27,000 and 24,000, respectively. The two regions showed the largest increase in the registered residents: 30,000 in Kyiv region and 24,000 in Kharkiv region.
Experts give various reasons for the popularity of these three regions. Some say that SCIENTIFIC BULLETIN OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF STATISTICS, ACCOUNTING AND AUDIT, 2022, № 1-2

ЕкономІка та управлІннЯ
Ukrainians had been traditionally, year by year, gravitated to large cities, with villages and small towns becoming deserted. The capitals of popular Ukrainian regions, Kyiv, Dnipro and Kharkiv, are indeed the largest cities in Ukraine.
Others attribute this migration to higher salaries in Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions, than elsewhere in Ukraine. But this did not prove to be as true as it seemed. The average salary in Kyiv is indeed much higher than in the other regions: in December 2021 it was more than 20,481 UAH (prior to tax deductions), against the average of 14,045 UAH across Ukraine. The average salary in Kyiv region was a bit higher than the average Ukrainian, i. e. 4,554 UAH. At the same time, Dnipropetrovsk region had only the seventh rank by salary rate with 13,730 UAH, and Kharkiv region was in the second ten with 12122 UAH.
According to the analytical center "CEDOS", Dnipro and Kharkiv are the second largest centers of student migration (after Kyiv) due to large numbers of leading national HEEs in these cities. The other cities popular with students are Odesa and Lviv, which, according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, are in the top five Ukrainian regions with the largest population increase.
Also, the population increase in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions is explained by experts in a way that they are adjacent to Donetsk and Luhansk regions where the Antiterrorist Operation Zone is located. 31,700 persons fled from Donetsk region alone in 2017, and only 7,000 came. While the outflow from Luhansk region was 21,800, the inflow was only 2,700. The majority of forced migrants chose a temporary place of residence in a region that was the closest to their home, i. e. Dnipropetrovsk or Kharkiv region.
Vinnytsia and Zaporizhzhia are other regions with more people going out and less coming in: in 2020, the annual reduction in their populations made 4,600 and 2,700, respectively [1].
According to a statistical observation of the website "Ukrainska Pravda" in 2019, Ukraine is the eight country in the world by number of internally replaced persons (see Table 3) [3].
So, the analysis of migration activity in Ukraine shows than the migration policy is highly inefficient. Migration processes have been chaotic by now. This widens disproportions at regional labor markets, increases social tensions, fosters ideas of national intolerance in the Ukrainian population. Source: [3] The Strategy of Migration Policy for Ukraine till 2025 contains a number of innovative provisions. Migration is addressed in it as not merely a risk factor, but also as an important component of the socio-economic and demographic development of the country. The Strategy has clear focus on attracting investors, skilled professionals and education migrants. But its provisions remain declarative, many procedures are practically ineffective. It is clear that the Ukrainian reality has faced obvious problems caused by inconformity between theoretical provisions and practices of implementing core ideas of the migration policy.

Strategic and innovative areaS in the development of national migration policy in the context of macroeconomic growth of the Ukrainian economy
Conclusions. Strategic orientations and innovative development of the migration policy in Ukraine have to be implementation of the migration policy in the development strategy of Ukraine and bringing practical procedures and implementation tools of the migration policy in conformity with its conceptual framework. It should involve the following measures: 1. Linking the migration policy to the demographic policy that needs to aim at stabilizing the number of Ukrainian population. It means that the migration has to be made a factor of increasing the Ukrainian population. This can be achieved through highlighting target groups of immigrants who are demanded by the country and its regions, with removing bureaucratic impediments in the issuance of residents permits or national passports to the incoming migrant categories: native Ukrainians, labor migrants living in Ukraine since long and well integrated in the Ukrainian society, graduates of Ukrainian HEEs, wives and husbands of Ukrainian citizens, other groups of migrants. This would be a way of increasing the Ukrainian population on account of legalization of the mentioned migrant categories. Some people have lived in Ukraine for twenty years, but they still cannot purchase a dwelling, legalize or become Ukrainian citizens.
2. Linking the migration policy to the economic strategy of Ukraine. It is necessary to clearly estimate the demand in foreign workforce with account to the internal reserves, and to impose regulation on the labor migration using the schemes of organized and targeted recruitment of labor migrants in donor countries. Barriers on the way to job placement of professionals and researchers must be lifted, because experiences of other countries confirm that the recruitment of foreigners helped stimulate economic development and make economic breakthroughs. If these steps are supported by improvements in the investment climate and the increasing salary rate, this will push back home Ukrainian professionals and researchers who went out earlier.
3. Linking the migration policy to the external policy of Ukraine. An important components of the external migration policy can be a program for stimulating coming back of compatriots, projects for dissemination of the Ukrainian language and building dialog with the diaspora through cooperative structures. Unfortunately, these components are not always effective and need to be improved.
Besides that, a part of migration-related spending can be reduced. Thus, agreements with countries donating labor migrants can be signed to the effect of preliminary professional and linguistic training of potential migrants; the targeted selection of labor migrants needs to be launched. National and foreign experiences of promoting Ukrainian language abroad may be used; offices for recruitment and training of labor and education migrants should be created. At the first phase, the external migration policy of Ukraine should put emphasis on Central Asian countries and Vietnam, as they have been traditional migration partners for Ukraine.
Summing it up, the effective migration governance in Ukraine needs to be based on the targeted migration policy that will help enhance the country's competitiveness and increase its economic performance. Modernization of the migration law is supposed to improve the governance policy, which will promote the sustainable development of regions, and to determine the ways for optimization of distribution of funds between the state programs. Therefore, improvements in the national legislation to enhance the efficiency of migration flows' control and international cooperation in their optimization can be considered as a component in implementing the national security strategy.