Improving Food Supply throught Increasing Local Production in Azerbaijan

            Research reviews and accumulated experiences show that irrespective of the branch of agriculture, its main production means are soil.The output of agricultural products and the development of different types of farms depend on the use of soil and its fertility. Azerbaijan has large areasof fertile lands that can produce high yields of agricultural plants.The purpose of the research is to investigate the sources and factors of food security that are of particular importance for ensuring food security of Azerbaijan and meeting the needs of the population in foodstuffs. The current state of food production in Azerbaijan, ways to improve food supply, and food market problems are investigated. Statistical data on the output of cereal grain products, legumes, potato, vegetables and melons, fruit and berries over 2003–2017 are given. The self-sufficiency and import dependence of Azerbaijan in plant products are estimated. The statistical analysis shows that Azerbaijan is still unable to meet the demand for basic food products through their domestic production; the share of imports of grain, grain legumes, vegetable oils, milk and dairy products in the total consumption remains to be high. This means that the positions of foreign producers in the domestic agricultural and food markets have been strengthening compared with the local producers’ positions in respective product segments. Another problem is related with the economic efficiency in the agricultural sector, including more efficient use of land, material and technical means, dissemination of agricultural innovations, intensification of production processes. Recommendations on optimization of food supply and achievement of food safety in Azerbaijan are given.

НАУКОВИЙ ВІСНИК НАЦІОНАЛЬНОЇ АКАДЕМІЇ СТАТИСТИКИ, ОБЛІКУ ТА АУДИТУ, 2019, № 1-2 In recent years, the rapid growth dynamics of Azerbaijan have become more prominent in the success of the agrarian sector. Food security is one of the important directions of realization of the state economic development concept, as well as the intensive development of agricultural production and provides unrestricted foodstuffs. Being one of the important components of the state's economic security, it also refl ects the economic and political power of the state in the context of globalization. Four key factors have special importance in ensuring food security. These factors include the availability of production capacities, the implementation of the production, the quality of products and the purchasing power of the population. Establishment of state reserve funds at the expense of domestic production has special economic importance in ensuring food security in the country. Therefore, the main goal is to create a reserve fund for the creation and use of a reserve fund, which plays an important role in the increase of local production [1; 2].

IMPROVING FOOD SUPPLY THROUGHT INCREASING LOCAL PRODUCTION IN AZERBAIJAN
Studies show that one of the major problems in raising domestic production is to protect the economic interests of the state and protect the domestic market from external infl uences to ensure food security. Increasing the production of agricultural products and promoting entrepreneurial activity and raising revenue in bringing it to the required level are closely linked with increasing the production of local products [3].The main factors affecting food security and the economic interests and political sovereignty of the state are the problems that arise in the food supply of the population of the country. Thus, improving food security is one of the key indicators of population's living standards [2 ; 3].
From this point of view, successful implementation of the state's agrarian policy, increasing agricultural production and improving its quality indicators are largely dependent on market conditions. Expansion of entrepreneurship activity in meeting the population's demand for food products and provision of agricultural producers with material and technical resources meeting modern requirements. It should be noted that it is crucial to fi nd the solution of resource provision in the study of the specialization of the regions, including the composition, characteristics, productivity and areas of the regions. In addition, the effi cient use of labor resources, including the labor force, in the supply of food security resources is also considered to be one of the important factors [3; 8].

СТАТИСТИКА
Studies show that the most important factor in providing food security at the expense of domestic production is intensifi cation of production [1; 12].
The State Program on Reliable Provision of Population with Food Products in the Republic of Azerbaijan for 2008-2015 states that reliable food supply is a key requirement for economic stability and social sustainability of each country [2]. One of the key factors infl uencing the formation of a reliable food supply in the country is the creation of suffi cient food reserves in the country, as well as achieving competitive production. From this point of view, it is of particular importance to identify and implement all possible forms and directions of the formation of state food reserves to ensure adequate food security of the population in market conditions. The economic power of the state is estimated based on the level of development of regions [3; 4]. The improvement of the domestic food market is directly linked to the country's food security and the achievement of a reliable food supply for the country's population. Establishment of agrarian infrastructure to create sustainable livelihoods with agrarian products facilitated the elimination of seasonal crop yields and ultimately increased production effi ciency [8; 10].
The market mechanism has been proven by many countries in the agrarian sector, according to the growth rate of production in the agrarian sector. In this regard, the research is aimed at investigating existing problems [9; 11].
The main purpose of the research is to investigate the sources of food security that are of particular importance in ensuring food security and meeting the needs of the population in foodstuffs, the study of certain aspects of important factors. Based on the fi ndings after the research, it is the preparation of proposals and recommendations for the solution of existing problems. First of all, we have tried to explore the current state of food production in our country and ways of promising development in the fi eld of agrarian food supply, study of food market problems. There are a number of factors that affect food security. One of them is the production process. During the survey, we assessed the level of food supply in the country at the expense of domestic production. Basically, research is planned in the following areas: -increasing the role of local production in ensuring food security, the organization of competitive domestic production, the need to increase food reserves; -basic factors affecting food security, self-suffi ciency level of basic food products; -evaluation of the current status of various food products in the country; -develop practical proposals for the organization of optimal supply and volume of food safety. The methodological basis of the research is the laws of the Republic of Azerbaijan, normative-legal documents adopted by the government, data from the State Statistical Committee, various monitoring results, state programs, studies and works of agrarian researchers from republican and foreign countries [12].
As we know, the main purpose of the intensifi cation of agriculture was the comprehensive reimbursement of the ever increasing demand of the population by increasing the volume of production and improving its quality. In modern economic conditions, the scheme of the product from producer to consumer is refl ected in the agrarian market of the country: Manufacturer -Supply organizations -Intermediary trading institutions -Consumer Research has shown that some changes have occurred in the country's agrarian sector with the creation of product sales through different channels. The sale of products through individuals (especially through direct markets and fi rm stores) has signifi cantly improved in recent years [2; 12].
The poor sales of agricultural products in the agribusiness system to the intermediary commercial organizations in the country under modern economic conditions are mainly due to several reasons: 1) In the current period, grain, meat and dairy products are strategically important for the state and are largely due to the fact that most of these products produced in farms are not used for state needs to provide food security. 2) Costs of the products, which are freely sold by market entities (potato, vegetable, dairy and other products produced by family and peasant farms), rapid depletion, non-sales of high yields, additional processing, high transportation costs, etc. as the case may be.

IMPROVING FOOD SUPPLY THROUGHT INCREASING LOCAL PRODUCTION IN AZERBAIJAN
A complex system of measures should be developed to strengthen the positions of the economy in domestic and foreign markets. The Complex Measures System is intended to raise competitiveness. Increasing competitiveness involves reducing the cost of a particular product and improving its quality [7; 11]. It is impossible to take this fi eld into the industrial bases of agricultural production without adequate capital investments and to meet increasing demand for the population's food products, and the industry's agricultural raw materials [4; 6].
Information on the production of agricultural products in food balances includes data from all manufacturers (state agricultural enterprises and organizations, collective farms, open and closed joint stock companies, limited and additional responsible economic societies, agricultural production cooperatives, other agricultural enterprises and organizations, entrepreneurs, household peasant households, and households) [12].
When calculating the "production" indicator for agricultural products (meat, dairy, eggs, cereals and grains, vegetables and fruit), information on the production of plant and animal products for all categories of farms is calculated for the calendar year. Data on cereals and grains are calculated according to the weight of the meat, according to the weight of the meat, based on the basic fat content (dairy production on agricultural producers in physical weight, agricultural producers, dairy products manufactured by the processing enterprises, and milk fat in basic fat content) [2; 12].
In Azerbaijan, agricultural producers mainly deal with their products and, in some cases, agricultural products.
Thus, the term "product" is used here in two ways: fi rstly, the production of agricultural products by agricultural producers; and the second is the production of processing products from processing and recycling of agricultural products in processing enterprises, agricultural producers and households [2; 6].
For this, let's take a look at the food balances of Azerbaijan on crop and livestock products. In fact, many products that form the basis of the consumer basket should be created, thereby protecting the food market from artifi cial price increases.

Figure 1. Food balances on cereal grain products, thousand tons
Source: [12] Varieties of agricultural crops in the Republic of Azerbaijan are refl ected in diagrams. Compared to imports, it was 6.2 percent in 2003 and 10.9 thousand tons in 2017.Despite the increase in production, there is also an increase in imports. This also gives rise to the fact that the population's demand is not fully met. In this case, it is important to increase the production of agricultural crops in the fi rst place and at the same time comply with the correct agrotechnical requirements.
According to the previous dynamics, key indicators for potato production have variable dynamics for years.
As can be seen from the fi gure, potato production in 2017 compared to the previous year (592.2-534.3) was more than 57.9 thousand tons, while production (913.9-992.8) was less than 78.9 thousand tons.

Figure 3. Food balances on potato production, thousand tons
Source: [12] Vegetables are the main indicator on the garden (179.5-189.2), almost 97,000 tons less, and on the fruit (40.6-46.6) and grain exports in 2003 amounted to 45,000 tons.

Figure 4. Food balances on vegetables and melons, thousand tons
Source: [12] The imports of vegetables and melons were 29.

Figure 5. Food balances on fruit and berries, thousand tons
Source: [12] According to the results of fruit and berry products, imports were 14. According to the data, most exports were observed in 2008. Generally, growth is observed in comparison with previous years.
As it is seen from the data, the share of imported products in the structure of product reserves created on the remaining products excluding garden products continued to increase. The grain and grain products segment of Azerbaijan's food market is currently more dependent on international markets. Apparently, over the past fi ve years, approximately 30% of the created reserves of cereals and grains have been imported. The share of imports of cereals and grain in the country's consumption of plant products is even greater. This is due to the fact that almost all of the grain imported by Azerbaijan is food oriented and goes directly to the consumption of the population.
In recent years, the dynamics of food production in agrarian sector in the regions of Azerbaijan is more noticeable in livestock breeding. Last year, the level of self-suffi ciency of livestock products of the country's population increased signifi cantly.
The volume of imports and exports means the amount of products imported and exported from the country as a result of transactions carried out by persons living in the Republic or enterprises operating in the country.
According to international experts, food safety indicators in the Republic of Azerbaijan have improved signifi cantly and have been moderate in comparison with previous years.
It should not be overlooked that it is an integral part of food supply and food security. The source of foodstuffs created here is also of great importance. In particular, it is necessary to eliminate dependence on foreign countries in food production, and to create the opportunity for the population to meet the food needs at the expense of local production.
By determining the annual consumption volumes, it is possible to determine the ratio between production and imports and its competitiveness. It is impossible to determine the level of food supply of the population with an international standard. All factors, from the geographical position of society to the national mentality, should be taken into consideration. Let's consider the level of self-regulation in our republic. Of course, the increase in imports volumes on the back of the annual increase in food production is partly due to the increase in the consumption level of the population. Nevertheless, the reduction of imports volumes and parallel increase in exports should be considered as one of the main tasks facing the country's economy. Self-suffi ciency (SS) and foreign trade (imports) levels are the calculated values based on balance sheet data. The methodology recommended by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is used during their calculation. In order to calculate the level of self-suffi ciency, the volume of production is calculated by dividing the output after the total amount of products exported from the total amount of imported products: C Selfsuf = production / (production + imports -exports) * 100.
The dynamics of indicators are shown in Figure 6.

IMPROVING FOOD SUPPLY THROUGHT INCREASING LOCAL PRODUCTION IN AZERBAIJAN
During the analyzed years some changes were observed in the level of self-suffi ciency and dependence on imports of basic crops.
As you can see from the picture, it has been given indicators for each product over the years. The level of cereal crops was 56.5% in 2010 and 66.3% in 2017, which means a 8% increase. The legumes are 65.8% in 2010, and 73.7% in 2017.In terms of potato dynamics, it can be noted that in 2010 it was 100.5%, and in 2017 it was 89.2%. It was 11.4% less than the previous one. The level of self-suffi ciency in all types of vegetable products was 97.6% in 2010 and 115.2% in 2017. Here, too, there is a slight increase. In fruit and berries it is observed 107.9% in 2010 and 122.4% in 2017. There is also an increase over the previous one. As far as grape production is concerned, there is also an increase in self-improvement.
Thus, in the end it is possible to note that growth of all plant products has been observed.
On the other hand, it is necessary to determine imports dependence. When we look at the imports and exports process in our country, we see that the growth rate of exports volumes is relatively higher than imports. This will allow substantial positive changes in the importsexports balance in the coming years. The level of dependence on foreign trade (imports) is calculated based on the ratio of imports to the absolute amount taken from the total volume of production and imports:

C Importdependence = İmports / (production + imports -exports) * 100
Domestic consumption refl ects the products consumed in production needs, the products used for the production of food products, the personal consumption (consumption) of the population, the loss of the products, and all the products used to produce non-food products. Figure 7 shows the dynamics of imports dependence on each agricultural product by different years. Thus, about 10% decrease in grains is observed from 2010 to 2017. There is also a decrease in dependence on imports of leguminous plant products. Unlike other products, in potatoes growth is observed: 6.9% in 2010 and 11.8% in 2017. This means 11% increase. Unlike potatoes, in all types of vegetables, as in other products, there is a decrease. There is also a decrease in fruit and berries. In 2010, it was 22.4%, and in 2017 it dropped to 9.6%.
Comparison of statistical data shows that, while increasing the production of agricultural products in our country reduces the risk of food security, it is still unable to meet the demand for basic food products at the expense of domestic production. As can be seen from the table data, the share of imported commodities on grain and grain legumes in the total consumption by the country's population is at a high level. It has been revealed in the study that vegetable oils, milk and dairy products are quite high.

Figure 7. İmport dependence of plant products, percent
Source: [12] This means that the positions of producers from the foreign countries in the country's agricultural and food products market are strengthening, as compared with the local SCIENTIFIC BULLETIN OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF STATISTICS, ACCOUNTING AND AUDIT, 2019, № 1-2 СТАТИСТИКА producers' positions on those product segments. Effective measures should be developed and implemented to prevent this from reducing the imports of product segments for preventing this and increasing the level of food security of the country.
In addition to increasing the production of agricultural products in front of the agrarian sector, there are also problems with increasing the economic effi ciency of production. This is the production of agricultural products; more effi cient use of land, material and technical means, application of scientific and technical progress in production, intensification of production processes, etc. is required.
The analysis shows that potential food security in our republic can be repaid at the expense of domestic production. In this case, full and effective use of land resources is one of the key conditions. It is possible to create a feed base of livestock at the expense of the lands returned to the crop circulation, thus achieving the production of competitive livestock products in the republic. At present, the lack of feed bases leads to a high cost of livestock products, which cannot continue to compete with imported products.
Conclusion. As a result of the conducted research, the following suggestions and conclusions are appropriate for ensuring the population's food security in the country.

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The main factor in ensuring food security in the country is the increase of the role of local production in agrarian sphere, organization of competitive domestic production, increase of food reserves, etc. should be.

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In the near future, the main criterion for the positive changes in the imports-exports balance should be that the growth rates of exports volumes in the country are relatively higher than imports.
• While increasing the production of agricultural food products in our country reduces the risk of food security, it is important to take appropriate measures to meet the demand for basic food products at the expense of domestic production.
• Ensure effi cient use of land resources, which is the main source of agricultural production, acceleration of irrigation and melting works, including the involvement of relevant crops in mountainous areas.
• Consumption should be reduced to a minimum to allow local producers to enter production from their production location.
• In general, increasing the economic effi ciency of production should be developed the development strategy of the food market and its separate product segments (major types of food products segments).

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In line with the application of modern innovative selection methods, the new approach should be developed in addition to the use of modern methods to analyze selected species of agribio diversity, hybrid, form estimates and results in databases.
• Adhering to innovation technologies during production development can have a positive impact on the product price, and can also increase their competitiveness.